A picture of a scientist in the 1920s. Source: Library of Congress.
Scientists produce things and systems that improve our lives. Improved hurricane forecasts between 2007 and 2020 saved an average of $5 billion per storm by allowing for longer preparation and mitigation according to a 2024 National Bureau of Economic Research study. The Human Genome Project cost $3 billion and generated over $1 trillion in economic impact and new medical treatments. The field of human genomics alone now supports over 850,000 jobs. Recent studies show that public research has accounted for roughly one-fifth of all U.S. productivity growth since World War II. Every dollar of public basic research returns about $2.50 directly and drags another $8.30 of private R&D in behind it — roughly eleven dollars of activity from one dollar of appropriation. This article looks at the problem through PhDs specifically, because they are the people who run laboratories, direct research institutions, and guide innovation programs. Producing a single PhD requires roughly six years of full-time original research and an institutional investment exceeding $200,000 in stipends, tuition waivers, and infrastructure. And this is all while the candidate delays a salary during their prime career-building years. A PhD, or Doctor of Philosophy, is the highest academic degree awarded by universities. Despite the name, it's not restricted to philosophy. It is the standard terminal degree for almost all academic disciplines, representing a candidate's proven ability to conduct original, independent research that expands human knowledge. Quite simply, America doesn't produce enough of them. And it's losing the ones it has.
For decades the shortfall was papered over by immigration. Roughly 40% of American STEM doctorates now go to international students, and temporary visa holders earn the majority of doctorates in computer and information sciences (61%), engineering (54%), and mathematics and statistics (51%). Attracting the world's talent is genuinely good. For instance, immigrants are 16% of U.S. inventors but produce 23% of patents and 25% of patent economic value. But training foreign nationals is not the same as building domestic capability, and the assumption that they stay is eroding. Historically, about 90% of Chinese STEM PhD graduates remained in the United States. By 2021, only 74% said they planned to. The trajectory means fewer people staying to repay the enormous public investment their training represents. But the fact that so many limited spots in the PhD production pipeline are not going to Americans who have always called America home is a loss on multiple levels. If America's primary and secondary educational institutions can't produce the capability or the desire within its students to expand knowledge instead of just consuming it, then we have a failure at the most basic levels that have implications at the highest.
The PhD degree is awarded in chemistry, engineering, and economics because "philosophy" once meant the pursuit of knowledge generally. Philosophia, is Latin meaning love of wisdom. That's why a PhD in nuclear physics is technically a Doctor of Philosophy, and why the terminal degree in actual philosophy is also a PhD.
The institutions that built this capability are contracting. In 2025 the Federal Government froze or terminated roughly 5,000 National Institutes of Health (NIH) and National Science Foundation (NSF) grants worth over $5 billion. And it's not just cut backs. The Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 budget proposed cutting both NIH and NSF each by roughly half. At 14 federal agencies, PhD departures outnumbered new hires 11 to one in 2025, a net loss of over 4,000 PhDs. Doctoral admissions at the top research universities fell 15% for 2026, which followed an 11% enrollment drop the year before. Caltech cut new graduate students 40%. George Washington suspended admissions entirely in mathematics, political science, and three other fields. Where quantitative and scientific talent is still being absorbed, it is increasingly by hedge funds and quantitative trading firms. These entities optimize returns for financial firms rather than expanding what humanity knows or benefits from widely. Most Americans don't recognize the problem. Others overseas have definitely noticed. And they're capitalizing on it.
A graphic from Berkely University's website promoting France's "Choose France for Science" effort.
France, America's oldest ally, moved first and publicly. Aix-Marseille University launched its "Safe Place for Science" in March 2025. This effort dedicated €15 million over three years for hosting researchers its president calls "scientific refugees." This inverts the flow from World War II when Europeans fled to America to work freely. The French effort drew nearly 300 applications in a month. The national "Choose France for Science" program announced its first 46 laureates in February 2026 with 41 of them arriving from the United States. French President Emmanuel Macron and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen launched "Choose Europe for Science" at the Sorbonne, one of France's most prestigious institutions of higher learning. China introduced the K visa in October 2025 for young science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) researchers without a prior job offer. This was initiated alongside a talent program offering starter bonuses around one million yuan and research funding of 3–5 million yuan. At least 85 scientists working in the U.S. joined Chinese institutions full-time since early 2024. The outflow was more than half in 2025 alone and included a Princeton nuclear physicist, an NIH neurobiologist, and over half a dozen AI experts. Canada committed C$1.7 billion. Britain put up £40 million. A coalition of 80-plus chambers of commerce counted 21 nations plus the EU running recruitment campaigns launched directly in response to American cuts. The world clearly sees the value of scientists even if America does not.
An analysis of Science papers with ten or fewer authors found 42% of first authors were postdocs and 30% were graduate students. Nearly three-quarters of first-authored work in one of the world's top journals comes from people who haven't finished training yet.
Everything ahead demands more scientific capacity, not less. From space exploration to cancer research to artificial intelligence, every field of progress requires deeper specialization to keep the progress going. And each depends on people trained over a decade in institutions built over generations. A PhD takes five to seven years, which means the admissions cuts happening now will only cause more and more harm to America's economy and its citizens well-being over time. And replenshing what is being last will take years. America is losing knowledge and it's getting worse every day.
